A year on, Ukraine still fights on as rumours of another offensive continues to swirl
On February 24th, 2022, In a televised speech directed to all of Russia, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, announced that he would launch a “special military operation” (Putin’s way of calling a war) in Ukraine in order to “demilitarise” and “denazify” the country of Ukraine. After his speech, the first explosions were heard across many major cities in Ukraine. From the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv to Kharkiv to Lviv to Odessa, no part of the country was safe from the missiles and shellings that came from many directions.
The over 100,000 Russian Troops that were near the border of Ukraine entered it through territory territory controlled by the rebels in the east, from the island region of Crimea in the south, and from it’s ally, Belarus, in the north. According to US intelligence reports, it was expected that Kyiv would fall to the Russians in a few days, and Ukranian President, Volodymyr Zelensky would’ve been overthrown in favour of a person who is more favourable to Russia, and would of been potentially killed.
However, both those scenarios never came to fruition, The Ukrainian army were able to resist the offensive coming from the Russians that was heading from Kyiv during the first few months of the war and even were able to retake land from them in the latter months of 2022. The war has had an impact on the world as prices for food and gas has gone up globally worsening the situation of inflation.
As we approach the one year anniversary of the invasion, Here are some aspects of the war that I wanted to reflect on.
The Rise of Volodymyr Zelensky:
The world’s attention was first drawn to Zelensky when he won a landslide victory in the Ukrainian Presidential Election in 2019, beating the incumbent president at the time, Petro Poreshenko by 73% to 24%. The headlines focused on his background as a comedian and actor who had a surprise rise in the world of politics.
His victory came from a wave of dissatisfaction that Ukrainians had with the political establishment of Ukraine, with allegations and charges of corruption surrounding many of its politicians who are also connected to many of the country’s most wealthy oligarchs. For example, then President Poreshenko, an oligarch who owned a chocolate company, used his position as president to enrich himself. For many of the Ukrainian public saw Zelensky as someone who is a breath of fresh air.
Another reason was the ongoing conflict in the Eastern Part of Ukraine known as the Donbas as the fighting between the Ukrainian military and Russian rebel groups who controlled parts of the Donbas. The conflict which had been happening since 2014, was at a stalemate as ceasefires and agreements to end the fighting never came to fruition. For those living in that region, they wanted an end to the conflict and Zelensky was seen as that hope as he promised that he would do everything he could to end the fighting.
The initial view from some people and what has been perceived by Putin, was that Zelensky would be a weak leader that was easy to be pushed over due to his lack of experience. Which was demonstrated by the infamous phone call of July 2019, which triggered the first impeachement of Former US president, Donald Trump, where Zelensky was pressured by Trump to get dirt on then former Vice President and Democratic Primary candidate, Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden regarding his work when he served on the board of a Ukrainian gas company, Burisma.
While Zelensky denied Trump’s request and the aid would later be released due to whistleblowing from some officials in the Trump administration who would later resign from their positions, the phone call had put Zelensky in a position of being put under pressure by then President Trump and even possibly do the former President favours in exchange for military aid. For some people who knew Ukrainian politics, they feared that the phone call could lead to future interactions with Putin regarding the War in Donbas could end in capitulation to Russia.
As his presidency progressed, Zelensky’s popularity was sliding to the negatives, as scandals, reports of centralizing power to the office of the president, and no progress with ending the war in Donbass contributed to the negative perception that many Ukranians held against Zelensky. A few weeks prior to the invasion as 100,000 Russian troops were at the Russia-Ukraine border, Zelensky tried to wave off concerns of a potential invasion as International investors pulled their investments away from Ukraine.
When the invasion happened whatever mixed feelings that Ukranians had toward Zelensky were overshadowed by the need to defend their country and praise for his leadership during leading his nation at it’s most difficult moment. Opposition figures who were critical of Zelensky and his administration put their criticisms of him aside and worked alongside him and his administration to help pressure and advocate Western countries to send military aid to help defend Ukraine.
As he continued to address his nation regarding the conflict and has continued to show leadership during his countries darkest days, Zelensky’s approval ratings have shot up back to record levels, and internationally, politicians across the Western world have expressed support in his leadership as well as being someone they want to meet with as seen with former British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson.
The Battle so far:
A year on from the invasion and both sides do not seem to be wearing out. When the invasion first started, the possibility that the Russians would be successful in their invasion was high as they made their advances towards Kyiv as well as take some of the countries major cities such as Kherson and Mariupol. However, The Ukrainian army were able to prevent the Russians from entering Kyiv as well as retaining a majority of their territory from the bombardments.
They also succeeded in taking back land from Russia, first in the north, then in the latter months of last year they were able to take land back in the Eastern and Southern part of the country. Further gains for Ukraine have been halted as the start of winter meant that fighting conditions would be tough for both sides to make any drastic gains on the battlefield. Even though fighting has been at a stalemate, it has still seen many casualty in both armies as well as civilian deaths.
If there was an example of this deadly stalemate it would be the city of Bakhmut which lies in the Eastern part of Ukraine, where the city which at one point was home to around 157,000 people prior to the war, is now in ruins and is now a ghost town. The battle has seen both sides suffer high casualties with the battle there being known as the “Bakhmut Meat Grinder” .
The Russian failures on the battlefield have came from a variety of reasons, poorly trained recruits, miscalculations from Russian leadership that they can easily invade Ukraine with a limited amount their military and the wear down of Russian military weapons and equipment. However, there are reports that the Russian military are preparing to mobilize an extra 500,000 troops as well as many of the Russian recruits are reportedly to be better prepared than they were back when they were first conscripted. Another factor is also the Russian Mercenary group, The Wagner Group, which has played a big role in the fighting in Eastern Ukraine. There have also been claims that China are considering supply weapons for Russia according to Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, if that happens that could shift the war to the Russian side.
The Ukrainians are hoping that they can fend off the Russians with more delivery of weapons from their allies. Specifically, longer range missile systems as well as the Abram, leopards and Challenger tanks. The Ukrainians believe that these weapons will be crucial in trying to gain an advantage over the Russians. The speed of delivery regarding these weapons will be crucial as getting weapons from the factory floor to the battlefield is a difficult process.
The supplying of these weapons is also another issue, for example, In one month, The Ukrainians have used 105mm Howitzer shells at the same rate as the US manufactures them in a whole year. Add with the factor that Ukraine’s allies also need these same weapons for their military and the turnover rate for these weapons are difficult to manage. Ukraine’s allies have also been reluctant in one of Ukraine’s key demands which are F-16 jets, which many of them fear providing these jets could provoke further escalation such as being used to attack Russian Territory.
Despite those fear, some officials in the Biden administration believe that the Ukrainian army has earned their trust given that since the conflict they have not hit Russian Territory. There will be hope from the Ukrainians that the quality of the weapons their being provided with will matter more than the quantity of soldiers from the Russian side. Time will tell whether if this is right.
The shifting Alliances in the World
On March 2nd of last year, the UN voted on a resolution to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The vote (seen above) saw 141 countries voting in favour of the resolution, 5 voting against the resolution, and 35 abstaining from voting on the resolution. Excluding Russia, The 39 countries that either voted against or abstentions represented a large part of the world that has a different view regarding the conflict, even those who supported the resolution had a mixed view regarding what happened and how to end it compared to Western countries who have emphatic in their support of Ukraine.
Most of these countries make up what is known as the Global South, referencing to the world’s poorest countries to the developing countries. Some of these countries that have faced scrutiny over their positions have been India, South Africa, and Brazil, these three countries making up the economic alliance known as BRICS. While Brazil did support the UN resolution to condemn Russia’s invasion, both Brazil’s current president Lula Da Silva and former president Jair Bolsonaro, have been lukewarm in terms of their support to Ukraine.
In an interview with TIME magazine, Lula who was a candidate at the time, put blame on Zelensky and leaders of Western countries for not yielding to Russia’s demands that Ukraine should not join NATO, and that they were not focused on negotiations towards ending the war. Since coming to office, Lula has continued to stick to his views regarding the matter and has proposed for a peace aligned club between Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia to get involved in the discussions of the war.
India has remained neutral in the conflict not supporting any resolutions in relation to the war. Just like President Lula of Brazil, The Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi has also called on both Russia and Ukraine to hold peace talks to end the war. Modi’s position is seen as being in line with India’s long standing policy of non-alignment dating back to it’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. India has also taken benefited from the war in terms of being one of Russia’s top customer for cheap Russian coal and oil as well as buying many of their weapons and military equipment from Russia.
While less of a factor in global politics, South Africa has been seen as one of the main countries of focus when it comes to Africa. Just like with India, South Africa has been so far neutral when it comes to the conflict. Just like Modi and Lula, South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, has called for a path to diplomacy and peace and had blamed NATO for not heeding to warnings when it came to the organizations expansion into Eastern Europe. Just like India, it is a member of the Non-Aligned movement and the ruling party in South Africa, the ANC has had longstanding relations with Russia, dating back to when the organization was fighting against apartheid in the country.
There is some changes to its position on the conflict though, as some analysts see South Africa leaning towards Russia and China. This is seen with it’s navy where along with China’s and Russia’s navies, are currently holding military exercises off the coast of South Africa. The drills have been met with condemnation from the US and Ukraine. South Africa’s Foreign Minister defended the exercises saying, “All countries conduct military exercises with friends worldwide… There should be no compulsion on any country that it should conduct them with any other partners.”
In terms of reasons why these countries have remained neutral, it ranges from negative views and perceptions of the West drawn from the long legacies of colonialism that many of these countries have suffered, selective condemnation and hypocrisy regarding other conflicts, and the long established economic ties that these countries have towards Russia.
There could be a potential shift in how these nations might view the war. For example as Russia was experiencing severe loses on the battlefield. Some countries that were seen to be steadfast allies towards Russia, started to criticize Vladimir Putin publicly. These ranged from the President of Tajikistan random rant where he talked about wanting “greater respect” from Russia, to Kazakhstan’s President, who has allowed those from Russia are avoiding conscription to seek refuge and has not recognized the regions of Ukraine that Russia claims to be their own. Even Modi has publicly told Putin at a meeting in Uzbekistan last year that he needed to end the war. If the war does see significant loses for the Russians, will it’s allies increase pressure on Russia to end the war? Again that’s a question that is based on timing.
There are many cases and examples regarding how countries in the Global South and even those within Europe, and other parts of the world have confronted with the conflict that would be too long to get into but I’ll leave a few links below for you to view some of these cases.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-61311272