What to watch for in 2023, Part 2: Democracy
Continuing from part 1, here is one more thing to look out for in the new year
I’m currently in Toronto’s Pearson International Airport where I am currently writing Part 2 of what to look ahead for 2023. It wasn’t busy when I first got here but at the time of writing in the last I hope you enjoy it as well as enjoy the picture of downtown Ottawa that I took as well.
#4: Democracy continues to be under threat
Assuming any of you watch cable television or any show with a current events or political theme (i.e. Showtime’s The Circus), then you will hear pundits and politicians talk a lot about how democracy is under threat, especially in the context of American politics. This started around the years when Donald Trump was president where the focus was on his attacks on the press, the norms and rules regarding the role of being President of the United States, and most notable of all from the months of November 2020 to January 2021, where he and those close around him attempted to overturn the election results of the 2020 Presidential election and is currently still pedaling the idea that the election was “stolen” from him.
While some might view this event as a one-off and that the election of Joe Biden as president means that the threats to democracy are gone, that could far further than the truth as was seen in Brazil a few days ago. Freedom House, an organization that tracks governments on whether they are upholding Democracy through a broad range of criteria, released it’s end of the year report for 2022 and the title on the first page of the report was “The Global Expansion of Authoritarian Rule”,
The authors of this part of the report, Sarah Repucci and Amy Slipowitz, talked about how liberal democracy, which they define as a form of “self government in which human rights are recognized and every individual is entitled to equal treatment under law”, was under threat across the world. Governments and leaders in the past few years have undermined liberal democracy through institutions like the judiciary where as discussed in the last article, there are governments who have undermined democracy through appointing judges who are biased towards them and make decisions based in their favour.
Other examples include, not just the judiciary, but also through the independence of a media, which has moved to favour the governments narrative rather than holding them accountable for their actions, the electoral commission, in some countries have made sure elections go in the favour of the governing party through making rules that make voting to be not that accessible to a particular group of people, rather than making sure that elections are free and fair and also accessible to all citizens. The undermining of a space for NGOs, independent media, opposition parties and groups to operate in the country and dissent against those in power
If a countries democracy continues to be under threat then this leads down the path of what experts call “democratic backsliding” where a a country experiences either a slow erosion of democracy as in the case of Hungary where the government of Prime Minister, Viktor Orban and the Hungarian Parliament which his Fidesz party currently holds power in, passed a number of laws and actions that have focused on dismantling democratic freedoms and the work of NGOs and academic institutions to operate in these countries.
Or in a more dramatic fashion as is seen with the case of the rise of Adolf Hitler as Chancellor in Germany back in 1933 where his government immediately banned opposition parties from competing in elections, banning of any expression be it written or through protest against the government and suppressed and targeted the Jewish population that lived in the country. Which led to the mass genocide of Jewish people that we know today as the Holocaust.
According to Freedom House’s report, in 2022, it found that global freedom was in decline in 60 countries compared that to 2005 where global freedom was improving in 83 countries. In 2023, the focus of where democracy is under threat will continue with what is going on in countries like Hungary, India, where the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP have targeted and introduced laws that have discriminated against the Muslim population as well as continuing to harass those who are critics, journalists and NGOs, be it in public or online.
Heading a bit more east, democracy is also of concern in the Philippines is also of concern, as while the former President, Rodrigo Duterte, who was nicknamed as the “Trump of the Far East” and is also a self styled hardman, has left office, there is fears regarding his successor, Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos Jr, the son of the former dictator of Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos, whose presidency was known for mass corruption that drove the country to deal with large amounts of debt and other human rights abuses (also his wife’s large wardrobe of heels). The worry was seen during the recent Philippines election, where misinformation to voters helped Marcos win the election.
Even countries where leaders who are seen as a threat to democracy, and face defeats such as former President Donald Trump in America and former President Jair Bolsanoro, still linger with rumors that some of them want to get a second shot at power. Although right now it is the spread of misinformation such as on COVID and doubts over the conducting of elections which has led to both of their suporters to storm their respective legislatures and attacks on the press is what makes them still a threat in 2023.
In South America, the one case that will be interesting to investigate will be Peru, where after the downfall of the Pedro Castillo administration. The new administration of Dina Boularte, has forwarded the elections to 2024, however, Peru’s electoral jury gave the provisional okay to move the elections to this year. If that’s the case, then the fears of the undermining of democracy in Peru could continue if Peru’s right wing party, Popular Force, nominate, Keiko Fujimori, a perennial election candidate since 2011, but most notably is the first lady and daughter of Alberto Fujimori.
Alberto Fujimori’s presidency has been a polarizing and controversial figure as he was defined by his military defeating the left wing terrorist group, Shining Path however he as been marred by corruption and human rights abuse such as the disappearances and killings of Peruvians who his administration claimed were close with Shining Path by death squads.
Democracy will also face threats in even well established democracies as Freedom House said that some leaders will look towards undermining democracy through the shortcomings those countries have. Such as in Japan, where while it is a strong democratic country, both the country’s political and business elites have restricted he release of news to a select few media organizations and journalists known as kisha kirabu (press club) system. This has meant that those who are independent journalists or foreign correspondents do not get the same advantage of getting access to that news compared to their counterparts who are members of the press club.
There are so many other examples I could point out, but I hope these few examples gives a good idea of what people talk about when democracy is in crisis across the world. If you want me to look at it more in depth than please do suggest it in the comments below.
For now I think if there is a Democracy in Crisis reading list, I’d say the top books I want to read about is Free by Lea Ypi, where it’s a memoir about her life from when she was an 11 year old girl seeing her country of Albania deal with the whims of change of the late 1980s and 1990s where the end of the cold war saw the defeat of communism in Eastern Europe, but would later have to deal with the problems of being a new democracy and where the idea of free markets engulfed society.
The second book, I plan to read is Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism by Anne Applebaum, While I disagree with a lot of her views, I think this book might be useful in understanding the lure towards authoritarian leaders. I’ve read an excerpt of the book for one of my classes a few years ago and I was hoping to get the book at some point. Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present by Ruth Ben-Ghiat, Has the same narrative although rather than looking at the ideology of authoritarianism she looks at the leaders and personalities that makes this view appealing.
Lastly, I’ll probably go back to some of the previous works of Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and The Last Man and Liberalism and it’s Discontents. He might get laughed at for the earlier book title when he argued that liberal democracy was the final stage for humankind, however I think both books are still relevant in still understanding the topic of the crisis that people speak of for liberal democracy.
I welcome any more suggestions if you have them.